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Menahem Anderman

Mars is a great market for pure EVs

Thu, 02/08/2018 - 14:35 -- Vic

All power to Elon Musk and SpaceX. What an incredible achievement to build the world’s most powerful rocket, make much of it reusable and have a sufficient sense of humour to put one of your other company’s product— a Tesla electric car, atop of it all and send it toward Mars! Tesla is losing a fortune, so what the hell?

This writer didn’t know if any of the Tesla team was at last week’s Advanced Automotive Battery Conference in Mainz last week, but maybe Menahem Anderman had a word in his ear. “You’ve got about as much chance of selling fancy electric cars on Mars mate, as you have in the USA or even China for that matter.” So perhaps Musk took him literally at his word?

It’s still all about the battery and Anderman literally laughed out of court the major automotive OEM’s predictions about how many pure EVs they’ll sell by 2025— only seven years away. 20% market penetration?  “Balls” as we say in the UK. Anderman reckoned 5% or probably less. It’s a little different in the People’s Republic of China. If you want a car in Beijing, you have to have an electric. It’s a government order.

But for the rest of the world? Big lithium-ion will still be too damn expensive even that far down the road. No cheap ingredients… nickel cobalt.  Get that into your heads!

Draw your own conclusions; it’s stop start for the rest of us. And that means… yes, lead!

The lead people though were not present in large numbers at AABC— outnumbered 10:1 by the advanced chemistry people.

In their own cosy sessions the lead men concentrated on difficult technical issues but failed to be exuberant on the good things coming their way in years to come— as long as they can keep the damn legislators off their backs. Maybe that’s the problem… they are too old to party! But they need to… lead industry stocks have got to be a better bet than so many new alternative chemistries.

You can read more about what really mattered at AABC in my exclusive report in the Spring issue of BEST. Make sure you’ve subscribed.

Mass EV markets are still a long way off— Anderman

Mon, 02/05/2018 - 10:58 -- News Editor
Mass EV markets are still a long way off— Anderman

Electric vehicle penetration at 20% of the global car fleet will not be reached by 2025, according to Menahem Anderman (pictured), the renowned battery and EV market analyst.

Speaking at AABC Europe, part of a conference series Anderman founded nearly 20 years ago, he said the age old arguments of lithium-ion battery costs remain the key barrier to market, though pack size and range have changed enormously in the last five years. Auto OEMs are offering a plethora of battery-powered vehicles with more than 180 available across the globe with the great majority being made in China.

 

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