The 2022 European Lead Battery Conference, held in Lyon in September, saw the Consortium for Battery Innovation (CBI) shift focus to energy storage as the natural market for lead-acid batteries. BEST technical editor Dr Mike McDonagh reflects: “The technical presentations seemed to hit the nail on the head concerning lead-acid’s future,” he says.
For the last few years, BESTmag has been banging the drum for lead-acid to be a major contender in the BESS market. Other organisations have had the same theme and companies like YUASA have even developed a fully operational hybrid BESS, using a complimentary lead-acid and lithium-ion combo as a working solution to the industry dichotomy of longevity and cost.
The technical and commercial battery requirements for ESS are relatively straightforward. Technically, there is a speed of response in milliseconds, which all battery chemistries can deliver, and commercially the levelised cost of energy storage (LCoES) should be as low as possible.
It is the latter point that is perceived as the stumbling block for Pb-A chemistry due to its relatively short cycle life and low round-trip energy efficiency compared to LIB chemistry. This specific point has been the subject of BEST articles and conference presentations written by the author, where simple solutions based on battery size have been proposed and evaluated.
The other theme of note in this conference was the monitoring and testing procedures used to control LAB’s performance and reliability. Again, a very important and commercially sound approach.
Lead-acid’s suitability for ESS
Looking at BESS applications for lead-acid, I was interested in the developments relating to enhancing lead-acid’s suitability for ESS. To be an attractive option in this market, it is essentially the LCoES that will determine the likelihood of a technology’s adoption. For this reason, I was interested in several presentations:
- Carl Telford’s paper for the CBI – Pb-A BESS for energy storage
- Ed Schaffer’s bipolar contribution for ABC
- Rainer Bussar’s research on higher energy efficiency for the formation of lead-acid batteries.
There is a general consensus within the Pb-A industry that lead-acid technology is a natural contender for the BESS market. There are several factors, including price, sustainability, and recyclability that support the consensus. If you add this to typical applications within the ESS umbrella, ranging from peak shifting and load levelling to fast charging of EVs at a fuel station, then you have a product and market that seem to be made for each other.
Carl Telford’s presentation examined the current state of Pb-A take-up in BESS applications. Fig 1 is a list of the funded CBI collaborative projects that are related to energy storage. An interesting point is their collaboration with Innovate UK, supporting modular energy storage with clean hydrogen (MESCH/AfTrac) initiatives in Malawi. This is an ambitious programme to provide a BESS whilst also producing so-called clean hydrogen from solar-charged Pb-A batteries, Fig 2. The electrochemistry for the battolyser (electrolytic hydrogen generator) will be interesting to examine. What is the energy balance for using hydrogen produced this way, compared to using the electricity for its generation directly for cooking, heating, etc?
From conventional Pb-A designs, we turn to Ed Schaffer’s bipolar technology as a suitable candidate for ESS deployment. Interesting, but we have to ask what properties of this technology give it any significant advantages in this application. In his presentation, Ed pointed out the requirements of ESS, and then contrasted the properties of LIBs and conventional LABs for ESS use. LABs definitely come off worst in the cycle life and energy efficiency department with a $/kWh cost of 0.26 c.f. 0.17 for LIBs. He also points out that conventional recycling methods for LABs require extensive pollution control measures to be regarded as safe, and also the high energy and CO2 penalties for the pyrometallurgical recycling process. The plus points are mainly the lower capital costs, safety, and high recycling rate.
The negative aspects of Pb-A in ESS applications are addressed in ABC’s EverGreenSeal technology attributes, shown in Fig 3. The main problems of cycle life and round-trip efficiency for Pb-A compared to LIBs are tackled by controlling the depth of discharge and ensuring that the lead foil attaching to the PAM is of sufficient thickness to last for the required life.
The reasoning and design justification are described on slides 8 and 9 in the presentation. However, there are parts of these slides that I need some counselling from ABC in order to fully grasp their meaning.
Based on their modelling system, ABC has drawn up a financial comparison between their Box-BE system and a Tesla pack used for a BESS application, Fig 4. In this, the ABC technology shows a net total saving of 14% over the Tesla pack and a 35% saving for the net present value (NPV) calculation. If this is combined with the other innovations of low kWh cost and low environmental impact from the solvent-based recycling method, resulting from the GreenSeal Alliance, then this does represent a major step forward for the Pb-A battery industry.
Reduce production costs
Another way of improving the ROI for lead-acid is to reduce production costs. One substantial part of that is the formation process. This element of manufacturing alone accounts for at least 50% of a battery factory’s total energy cost.
Penox has picked up on this, and I found the presentation by Rainer Bussar to be quite remarkable. In essence, they have demonstrated in the laboratory, that they can reduce the formation factor (the number of times the battery capacity can be divided into the coulombic input from formation), from three times the capacity to 1.5 times the capacity, Fig 5.
If this is proven in field trials, it means the total energy bill for a battery manufacturer can be reduced by around 25%. That represents a potential saving of millions of dollars per annum for Pb-A manufacturers and has even greater significance in today’s unstable energy market, compared with a year ago.
Due to the shared goal of Penox and the UKP/Ecotech/Digatron/BEST consortium, in reducing formation energy, we have already started cooperation in combining our methods to ascertain if there may be any benefits from this. Keep watching for progress in future editions.
Process control
Process control was also well represented by several contributors. Again, ensuring uniformity in all sub-components should give better battery life and fewer performance/warranty headaches. One of the problems with monobloc designs, particularly 12 V and above, is the measurement and control of inconsistencies between individual cells in a battery.
The end of life of a battery is determined by its discharge performance, i.e. how long it takes to reach the end of discharge voltage. This is the sum of voltages of the series-connected cells in the battery. A 10.2V final voltage for a 12V (nominal) monobloc will not be made up of six individual 1.7 V cells. It is more likely that one or more of those cells will be closer to 1.5 or 1.3 V, with the higher ones around 1.85.
In other words, weaker cells dragging down the better ones to give early failure. If all cells were at the higher end, it would extend battery life significantly. The sticking point is controlling the AM consistency and weight for every plate. Once pasted, a plate’s characteristics are fixed. Variation between cells, and therefore plate consistency, is only apparent once the battery is acid-filled; by this time, it is too late to rectify. Contributions from Wirtz, CMWTEC, Mate Gauge, and Digatron were examples of suppliers’ progress in this direction.
Wirtz showcased their developments in continuous casting, Oxmaster paste-mixing equipment and steel belt pasting. A significant part of the emphasis of their equipment development was on the control of thickness for the strip-produced grids and the pasted plates. The other main focus was on the automation of various ancillary operations such as stacking, loading and unloading operations – important for minimising lead handling and operator safety.
For this article, however, it is the control methods, which produce greater product uniformity, that are of most interest. In this respect, the advances in the Concast strip thickness control, Fig 6, and the steel belt pasting line, Fig 7, will be welcome additions to the industry.
Inconsistent pasting belt wear
As most manufacturers will be painfully aware, traditional pasting belts, be they made of canvas or polymers, are prone to inconsistent wear. This leads to variations in pasted plate weights due to variations in pasted plate thicknesses. Even without wearing grooves into a belt, there is some natural give in these materials, which can cause dips underneath a grid during high-pressure pasting. The use of a steel belt pretty well eliminates this and enables tighter tolerances to be met consistently over a longer time period. This leads to better product uniformity, which in turn provides improved battery life and substantial cost savings in material due to weight control.
With the Wirtz SBP/RPC line, a promise of a 0.01 mm thickness control ensures that the savings and product consistency should be realised. On the same note, the improvement to the cooling water flow in the Oxmaster paste mixer cooling jacket should also provide more control over the alpha/beta ratio of the lead sulphate crystallography of the pastes. This should improve cycle life or CCA performance, whichever you opt for in your product range.
Monitoring and control systems
Staying with process control, Steve Mate, who is rapidly becoming an industry veteran, provided an insight into the importance of better monitoring and control, particularly in this new post-pandemic industrial landscape. His main mantra was that there is sufficient expertise in monitoring and control systems, from suppliers to the industry (in this case himself) that there is no point in companies designing and installing this equipment in-house. In fact, it is highly probable that without the correct expertise it is unlikely to be successful, or worse, it may even create problems.
To illustrate this, he provided information on his Mate Gauge, Fig 8. This is a ready-to-use, plug-and-play instrument that provides fast, accurate thickness data, claimed to be easier and quicker than PLC set up and integration. Fig 9 is a representation of how Mate gauge installation is claimed to reduce your production variability.
Digatron, no strangers to product testing and process control, made a presentation highlighting their test and production equipment. Since this was the ELBC, this article will focus on their Pb-A battery formation and testing business. Whilst they are very well known for their electronic expertise in providing industry-leading formation and test units, they now also offer acid recirculation machines through their partnership with Inbatec, Fig 10.
By combining the monitoring control systems, via their battery manager software, with better electrolyte density regulation and full water bath control, a new level of formation accuracy is possible. The result should be a finely tuned formation process with lower energy consumption and a more consistent final product.
Another tool in the weaponry of manufacturers seeking higher consistency of product is the use of in-line testing stations. Whilst manufacturers assume they have testing (of course they do) CMW brings a new dimension with their “high current process control software”, Fig 11.
A simple HRD (high-rate discharge) station is transformed from a straightforward accept and reject point, to a source of diagnostic data. By building up data on battery in-line test performance and combining this with diagnostic data that can recognise the causes of fluctuations, much could be done to narrow the variables that exist in our industry.
Hitting the nail on the head
The overall conclusion from my perspective was that the ELBC technical presentations seemed to hit the nail on the head concerning lead-acid’s future.
However, I will say (controversially perhaps), that the main source of variation in manufacturing Pb-A batteries has traditionally been within the materials. Think about it, what other industry would accept a standard for a lead oxide material of 24-30% free lead, or incoming traction 2V cell boxes with a +/-1mm bend between the top and bottom?
Having spent many frustrating hours trying to find heat-sealing settings that can cope with a 2mm shift to left or right, from the same pallet of boxes, in order to keep a machine running, I am perhaps biased in my view. This is all routinely accepted on the grounds of cost. And should we want better accuracy then perhaps we should pay more for our materials and our manufacturing equipment.
The world has moved on since the 1980s; there are more applications and more diverse requirements. Price is still a factor, but return-on-investment, aptly labelled ROI, is arguably the new king of our industry.
In any event, if Pb-A batteries are to compete in future markets, we need to up our game in consistency, longevity, and reliability. The answers may have just been presented to us in this 2022 ELBC.
Lead is not dead but could do better
Lead is far from dead and has a future that will last many years yet. Market share for lead-acid batteries is steady and growth prospects are modest. But there is huge upside potential from ESSs and new opportunities are there for the taking. Andrew Draper reports from ELBC.
Lithium-ion batteries have enjoyed the highest growth rate and major part of the investments, but lead-acid batteries are maintaining a steady 50% market share in terms of volume, according to Fabrice Renard, Senior Advisor at Avicenne Energy.
Renard said (in a presentation to ELBC) the worldwide battery market hit 400 GWh last year, with Pb-A batteries maintaining 50% of that market share by volume. Overall, it was worth $116 billion (pack level), and notched up 10% growth each year between 2010 and 2021.
The lithium-ion market is dominated by just five producers, said Renard, noting they had some 70% of the 406 GWh in 2021. They include CATL on 26%, Panasonic with 12%, LG on 19%, BYD with 7% and SDI with 8%. That market is expected to expand to 700 GWh by 2030, he said. (Fig 1)
In Europe alone, production capacity is set to hit 700 GWh in 2030 from 300GWh in 2025. (Fig 2) While a lot of investments are planned, not all will pan out as planned. “Some will disappear,” he said. The shortage of available labour will hamper recruitment plans. “You always need a new team… It’s difficult to hire a new team to make lithium. There will be competition to get good teams.”
The industry is pushing to reduce the time to bring new products to market, according to Renard. But it is taking time, and it will be an evolving market. A revolution will not happen.
In 2025, 5% of new cars could be equipped with lithium-ion. But 70% of the SLI battery market is aftermarket so the % of lithium-ion batteries for SLI is increasing very slowly, he said.
Renard believes the worldwide total lithium-ion battery market will reach 2.3 TWh in 2030, and xEV batteries will be about 90% of this market. The Pb-A battery market will go from 415 GWh in 2020 to 495 GWh. The market combined will be worth some $290 billion by 2030, up from $93 billion in 2020, he added.
Lead: a greyish-green future
The market for lead is facing “a bumpy road”, with factors such as the war in Ukraine, exiting the coronavirus pandemic, inflation and supply problems all affecting the market. Neil Hawkes, the principal analyst at research organisation CRU, told ELBC that, despite the uncertainty, it was time for “grey” battery metal lead to re-energise its resilience in existing uses and make tangible gains in new “greener” uses too.
Lead pricing has retreated from testing the higher end of middle-ground trading and is now in a range of $1,800-2,400 per tonne. At the end of September, it was trading at around $1,900/tonne. Other metals traded on the London Metal Exchange are facing much greater volatility.
The loss of some production facility capacity means that prices are “struggling to hold on,” he said, but added lead was on a “steadier” price path due to:
- Smaller lead market imbalances than in other LME metals
- Relative illiquidity was discouraging excessive investor participation
“Lead is on a less volatile path. It should be steady lead,” he said.
Hawkes said China is expected to remain a modest net exporter, driven by a tighter US-led ex. China market and easier domestic market. “China is going to define the tightness of the market going forward,” said Hawkes. However, Korea and Australia are also key lead exporters, notably to the US, he said.
The US lead market is tighter due to sustained demand strength and a lengthening list of local smelter exits, including Florence and Belledune. This has created a shortage of lead and a jump in premiums paid. Lead is increasingly being imported to the US, up 13% year-on-year in the first half of 2022. This comes on top of a boom import year in 2021.
Tighter European lead market
The European lead market tightened last summer after Germany’s Stolberg smelter shut. Market demand remained, but contract terms jumped to “unprecedented levels”, said Hawkes. The market tightened further into the spring as war-torn Ukraine and sanctions-hit Russia slowed supply flows from east to west.
The summer maintenance – longer than usual for some – is expected to ease the market. But pre-winter battery restocking, economic slowdown, the expected Stolberg smelter restart, and energy-led smelter squeeze, will all be key in determining the degree of autumn retightening, according to his forecast.
He said upcoming contract negotiations will be especially important. Chip shortages, the war in Ukraine fuelling inflation, Chinese lockdowns and logistical logjams will all serve to stretch out global vehicle recovery into 2023-24.
“There’s going to be a long tail of replacement of auto lead batteries,” said Hawkes.” You can buy a car and drive it for 10-15 years and replace the battery several times.” That will result in net auto lead battery demand growth, albeit moderating through time. That will take decades, well past any ban on new internal combustion engine sales. Hotter summers and colder winters will also play their part in testing battery endurance.
Lead batteries’ total cost of ownership is becoming more cost competitive with lithium-ion batteries, not only at grid scale but also for domestic use, said Hawkes.
Investors are more excited by “hotter” longer-term demand outlooks for “greener” metals such as copper, and other battery metals lithium, nickel, cobalt, and manganese. “But this attitude towards “grey” lead is misplaced. Lead is part of the solution rather than part of the problem,” said Hawkes.
He added: “Industrial lead battery demand is most likely set on a modest growth path through the 2020s, albeit with huge upside potential (ESS)…The future could be more greyish green than you think.”
• Strong “cradle-to-grave” credentials – consistently high recycling rates and cheaper battery cost compared to less recycling-friendly and higher-cost lithium-ion-based batteries.
• Greater safety issues in lithium over lead batteries.
Lead is not dead
The global market for the industrial Pb-A battery should be worth $13 billion in 2023, up from $12.4 billion in 2021, according to Nick Starita, President of Energy Solutions and New Ventures at Hollingsworth & Vose. Two-thirds of the market will be stationary, with motive making up the rest. (Fig 4)
He told ELBC that there is a lot of uncertainty in his forecasts: “If you want to find pessimism, you can find it. If you want optimism, you can find that too.” His forecasts are based on a range of industry experts and sources.
He said electric truck orders rose 67% between 2019 and 2021. Economies improved as markets moved out of the pandemic. “What’s distorted it though are long lead times for electric trucks. How long it’s going to last is a good question,” he said.
Motive power market drivers and trends
- E-commerce – decentralised, indoor warehouses; goods need to move quickly to final destinations
- Global distortion – freight costs, currency fluctuations, long lead times and backlogs, supply availability, lead prices, new entrants
- Developing markets – economic growth, environmental regulations
- Regulations – emissions regulations
The stationary market is expected to grow in all regions, but especially in India and China, which accounted for $5.5 billion of the $8.2 billion in revenues in 2021, said Starita. Growth rates for the next two years should be 3-5%, he said.
In the telecoms market, the move to 5G networks will demand more power to run them. “5G towers can consume 2-3 times more power than 4G,” said Starita. “That needs backup batteries.” In developing countries, infrastructure investments will provide growth. Overall growth in telecoms will be 3-6% a year, he said.
In UPS, the forecasted growth is 3-5% per year, driven by data centres, he said. UPS lead battery sales were due to hit $2.8 billion in 2021.
The ESS market is “absolutely massive”, he said, adding that lead must find its niche there. Companies must ask what they are good at (and what lead is good at) to tackle the next frontier.
“There’s no reason to believe the Pb-A battery is dead,” said Starita. “It’s reliable, it works… and it will be around for a long time.” If companies can solve problems, they will add value.
Transportation battery forecast
- Market triples in five years to $450 billion
- Lithium growing 31%/yr. to $378 billion – driven by all EV apps
- Pb growing 5%/yr. to $72 billion; mix plus deep cycle apps
Ray Kubis, Chair of Gridtential Energy of the US, told ELBC that lithium-ion battery users are facing many challenges, including the cost and adequacy of materials supply, and safety. They also face huge investments in capacity and R&D. (Fig 5)
Lead-based opportunities are “large and real”, he said. The world needs more than lithium-ion alone can supply. Pb-A batteries offer low cost, safety, and ready recycling benefits. The technology potential is achievable, he added.
Electric vehicle (EV) sales are surging, and EV light vehicles are expected to make up 28% of the total in 2027 (9% in 2022). The power of these vehicles is also growing, expected to hit 75 KWh per vehicle (59 KWh in 2022). At the same time, the cost per KWh is coming down – to $132 from $150 today. US consumers are favouring big, expensive EVs, while in China it’s the small $5,000 vehicles that are selling most.
Kubis believes that small vehicles such as e-scooters and bikes will overtake large vehicles. “People are using them to avoid pricing costs of congestion and avoiding public transport too during Covid.” Delivery companies like Amazon and Walmart are turning to EVs for the “final mile” delivery to households, he said. (Fig 6)
Low-speed light EVs such as the Indian TukTuk are growing in popularity. The TukTuk has more than 90% Pb-A batteries, and it’s a similar story with China’s three-wheelers.
However, there are still 1.5 billion cars on the road with an average age of 12 years. These run on Pb-A batteries. A combination of the pandemic and cost of living increases means their average age will rise. The market for Pb-A will not go away any time soon.
And as lithium-ion battery materials soar in price, not so many people will be willing to pay the rising replacement costs of the EV battery, said Kubis.
Banging the drum for the Pb-A battery, Kubis said: “I do believe that Pb-A batteries are working better than ever before. But they’ve not improved enough. We can also push for developments.” Industry players need to work better together to improve the standing of lead.
