China is to introduce restrictions on antimony exports and this could lead to another flashpoint with the West over control of critical minerals, according to Reuters columnist Andy Home.
In an opinion piece, he said the restrictions have “added fuel to a red-hot market.”
Antimony is used in lead-acid batteries, as well as in solar panels and flame retardant applications. The US Department of the Interior has designated it a critical mineral – it is also essential for armour-piercing ammunition, infrared sensors and precision optics, he noted.
The US Department of Defense held just over 90 tonnes of the substance at end-2022, according to the Congressional Research Service. It has authorisation to buy more.
Antimony prices have almost doubled from the start of the year to $22,750 per ton (basis metal delivered to northwest Europe).
He said analysts at Project Blue estimate the market was already facing a 10,000-ton shortfall before China’s restrictions.
The new rules do not set explicit limits on exports but rather require exporters to apply for licences for dual-use civilian and military materials and technology. The process typically takes two to three months in China.
He said if last year’s export restrictions on gallium and germanium are anything to go by, the market should expect a collapse in outbound antimony shipments once the new rules come into effect on 15 September, followed by a weak recovery in volumes.
The messaging is aimed first and foremost at the US, he said, where there is bipartisan hostility to China’s growing military and technology challenge.
The US is critically dependent on China for antimony. It consumed 22,000 tons of antimony products in 2023. Domestic production amounted to just 4,000 tons. This mostly came from antimonial lead recovered from used lead-acid batteries.
Price data agency Fastmarkets is holding an Antimony Insights Day on 23 September, bringing together key producers, consumers and traders. Expert reporters and independent analysts will provide insight.
