The latest International Energy Agency (IEA) Net Zero Roadmap contains a comparison of the growth rates and cost reductions of some world-changing technologies between 2010 and 2020. They include US aircraft in WW2, the Ford Model T, gas turbines from the 1970s, plus wind, solar and batteries.
Other than the wartime aircraft, electric vehicle (EV) batteries are growing faster (up 69% in the decade) than any technology, and reducing costs more dramatically (down 19%) than anything else.
Advanced Propulsion Centre, the British non-profit organisation facilitating R&D projects, has released a new quarterly forecast stating that production of EVs and battery electric vehicles (BEVs) will continue to grow at pace.
Development differs according to market. The demand for plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) is not expected to grow in the second half of the decade, it said.
Total battery demand will continue to rise as the US overtakes Germany as the second largest EV market. In Europe, BEV production plans are being held back by supply chain localisation challenges.
In 2030, 11 million fully electric vehicles, including vans and trucks, are expected to leave the European automotive factories. On a global scale, the demand for batteries is expected to reach 3,500 GWh to supply 44 million EVs.
This would mean an increase of 640% from 2022. If all vehicles were electric this would mean 8,500 GWh of batteries annually.
The report foresees an increase in LFP battery chemistry at the cost of NMC chemistry globally. In Europe, NMC will dominate until 2030, while the share worldwide is expected to be less than 50%. The current and planned cell production capacity in Europe is well in excess of demand, and delays and cancellation of projects are expected.
The strategic balance of cathode materials will continue to be unfavourable for Europe – investments have been moved to Canada and the US thanks to large incentives to manufacturers of essential metals.
Chinese company Huayou Cobalt has announced plans to produce cathode material in Hungary. For the anodes synthetic graphite is expected to grow compared to natural graphite. Demand for other battery components such as aluminium and copper foils, and electrolyte raw materials, is expected to increase ten-fold by 2030. Europe will need more investments in both separators and electrolyte, very important to maintain cell production.