Global demand for refined lead metal is anticipated to increase by 1.9% this year to 13.42 million tonnes, according to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG).
The Portugal-based body sees a partial recovery in demand in the US of 0.7% in 2024 after a 3.8% dip last year. In Europe, a 1% rise in demand is expected this year after a 6.7% increase last year on the back of an upturn in automotive production.
Chinese demand was up last year by 2% and seen going up another 1.6% in 2024. Japan, Korea and Mexico are also expected to increase demand in 2024, it said.
On the supply side, world lead mine production is expected to rise 1.8% to 4.59 million tonnes in 2024 (up 1% in China).
An expected increase in world refined lead metal output of 1.4% to 13.46 million tonnes in 2024 will be mainly influenced by rises in Australia, China, India, Japan, the Republic of Korea and the United Arab Emirates, it said. In the US and Canada, however, production is expected to decline.
Global supply of refined lead metal is expected to exceed demand by 40,000 tonnes in 2024, said the report.
Global demand for refined zinc metal is forecast to rise by 1.8% to 13.96 million tonnes in 2024. The supply of refined zinc metal will exceed demand in 2024, it said. The surplus is forecast at 56,000 tonnes.
Addressing the Battery Council International convention in Florida last week, principal lead analyst at CRU Neil Hawkes said global BEV sales growth more than halved in 2023 (up about 30% vs. over 70% the year before).
Despite this, the global share for ICE vehicles will slide from 70% in 2023 to under 40% in 2030, he said. There will be a big rise in OE lithium battery demand for the required step up in voltage.
“However, there will be no big drop in OE lead battery demand as low voltage 12V lead-based batteries will continue to be used for starter and auxiliary (safety, security) functions in most powertrains through this decade,” he said. Replacing batteries in existing vehicles will be a far more important lead driver than OE demand.
CRU sees a huge growth in BESS – more than quadrupling from just under 120GWh/year in 2023 to nearly 550GWh/year in 2030, mostly driven by solar. Hawkes said this is a big opportunity for lead batteries to gain market share in BESS alongside surging lithium battery use, although sodium-based batteries are also emerging.
“Even a small rise in lead battery share in this rapidly growing BESS market could be significant in terms of lead demand,” he said.
Photo: Neil Hawkes said huge growth in BESS a big opportunity for lead batteries. CRU
