Long-duration energy battery cells are becoming bigger – up to 1,000Ah capacity for stationary storage – and this is reducing overall system costs, an analyst said.
Iola Hughes, head of research at market watcher Rho Motion, said in an interview with BEST that for stationary storage, they are increasing to 800–1,000Ah. “And what that means is you could basically reduce the cost of your overall system because you’ll need fewer cells within it. And really the barrier to longer duration lithium-ion systems is the cost issue. So by using these larger cells, they’re really kind of targeting longer duration systems and making that more affordable. So there’s a lot of work going on to there, make lithium-ion suitable for long duration.”
She said lithium-ion is “definitely set” to dominate. LFP cells are now being sold around the $50/kWh mark, she said. “So the cells are increasingly cheap, which does make longer duration more affordable.”
She said the price of lithium carbonate is “pretty low” right now and there is some expectation that it will recover at some point, but not in the near term. “I think general market sentiment is the prices will continue to fall this year.”
The company tracks international projects and reports over 20GWh of flow batteries in the pipeline. A lot of that is in China, but 3GWh outside China. They typically have 4–20 hours’ duration.
Rho Motion’s tracking shows lead-acid batteries maintaining sales, for example in traction, UPS and telecoms, but losing market share “incredibly fast”.
However, Neil Hawkes, principal analyst for lead at CRU, has this week issued a “Top 10 lead market calls for 2024”. He predicts that auto battery demand will stay resilient across new vehicle powertrains. Big growth is seen in BESS, which cannot be met by lithium batteries alone, he said. “Lead is the only other battery chemistry that can help meet the need on a mass market scale,” he added. EV fast charge buffering and ‘behind-the-meter’ back-up offer opportunities too.
Image: Larger cells for longer duration. Rho Motion
