The consultancy firm McKinsey has suggested efforts to reduce carbon emissions with electric vehicles (EVs) might be undermined by the lack of critical minerals supply.
Demand for EVs will grow by six times from 2021–2030, it said in a report. And supplies of critical minerals will not be enough to meet demand for battery materials, it said.
For perspective, EVs are 15–20% heavier than internal combustion vehicles due to the material from the battery, it said.
McKinsey said a sharp increase in lithium mining will have to happen, as it is becoming the clear dominant battery chemical for EVs. Currently, battery producers use more than 80% of all mined lithium. This could grow to 95% by 2030.
Class 1 nickel shortage fears have already led to investment in new mines, especially in south-east Asia. These fears have not stopped the potential increase in demand, via lithium-manganese-cobalt (Li-NMC) batteries, it said.
While shortages of cobalt are unlikely, demand for it will rise even if it is used less in battery chemistry mixes. The Democratic Republic of the Congo holds 64% of the world’s estimated cobalt supply. This will increase alongside supply from Indonesian nickel mines, it said.
High-purity manganese could also see supply outpaced, even as it is projected to increase moderately through to 2030.
This could be affected by regional disparities, as countries with naturally more raw materials are in a better position than those, like Europe and North America, which are reliant on importing.
Another aspect of decarbonisation of the transport industry is keeping greenhouse gas emissions low, as more materials will need to be mined, it said.
On average, 40% of battery emissions come from the mining and refining of raw materials. The amount varies from 20–70%, it said.
This is in part due to the use of fossil fuels in these processes, for example in smelting nickel, it said. Some materials and battery chemistries are more carbon-emissive than others, the report said.
All these issues create opportunities for battery cell and automotive manufacturers to collaborate on sourcing low-carbon materials, it said.