Over 600GWh of batteries were deployed in 2024 for all types of electric vehicles (EVs), a 23% increase from 2023, said Rho Motion in a battery round-up of Q4 2024. Battery pack sizes have increased.
And 205GWh of global battery energy storage was deployed last year, a 53% year-on-year increase, it said. There is a capacity of 1.4TWh for grid storage in the global BESS project pipeline between 2025 and 2027.
Both bus and coach battery demand has fallen 30%, but medium and heavy-duty vehicle battery demand doubled, it said.
LFP has become the dominant chemistry, partially due to China’s growth. Globally, the market share of LFP is over 45%, a 5%-point increase from 2023. Mid-nickel has seen a limited growth, lost market share but increases from 2GWh, it said.
High-nickel cathode demand increased by 35GWh in 2024, it added.
Iola Hughes, head of research at Rho Motion, said actual deployment of new technologies is slower than the attention they have received suggests. This includes sodium-ion, lithium-manganese-ferro-phosphate (LMFP) and semi-solid batteries.
This is due to challenges in ramping and the low price of LFP batteries, which have fallen to record lows. In China, LFP cells cost less than $60/kWh. Globally nickel-manganese-cobalt (NMC) chemistries have fallen by 20% in price to $75/kWh.
Hughes said the BESS market continues to lead battery demand growth. There were 17 projects over 1GWh in the first quarter of 2024, compared to four in 2023. Some 140 projects over 1GWh are planned for 2025/26, she said. Over 30 will go beyond 2GWh.
The largest increase in duration for BESS projects was in Europe. This is over two hours in 2024, compared to 1.4 in 2023, she said.
Separately, S&P Global said there is a manufacturing oversupply affecting solar, wind and energy storage. This has not shielded lithium-ion battery cell producers, it said.
Annual production output went beyond 10 billion cells for lithium-ion batteries, it said.
Currently, China dominates the manufacturing capacity for battery cells at 80% of market share. In 2030, this is expected to decrease to 60% as the US, south-east Asia and India improve their manufacturing capabilities, it said.
S&P Global estimates 82GW/216GWh of stationary storage will be installed in 2025 globally.