A webinar analysing possible outcomes for the EV and battery market of the upcoming US presidential election heard the EV revolution is here to stay, regardless of whether Kamala Harris or Donald Trump wins the race on 5 November. However, the congressional majority will have a great influence on the outcome of the next four years.
UK research and consulting company Rho Motion arranged the webinar with invited specialists, Andrew Wishnia from EpicWork Advisors and Bryan Bille, principal policy analyst at Benchmark Mineral Intelligence.
The environmental heritage of the Biden administration consists of two major parts, they said: the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (BIL). BIL offers support of $35/kWh for domestic battery cells and $10/kWh for each battery module plus tax credits for critical battery chemicals produced in the US. The target is that 100% of all battery components and 80% of critical materials should be US produced in 2029.
The first IRA Foreign Entity of Concern (FEOC) restriction on battery imports was applied in January 2024. FEOC countries are China, Russia, Iran and North Korea. The 100% tariff on EVs made in China was another protective measure from the Biden administration.
Geopolitical factors will continue to affect the EV and battery markets. But what are the major differences for EV and battery makers with either a Democratic or a Republican president?
Experts Will Roberts and Iola Hughes from Rho Motion said the environmental rules on fleet emissions are likely to be changed by a Trump administration. This happened after Trump’s victory in 2016, when the limit was increased from 163 g/mile to 202 g/mile.
President Biden reduced the limit to 161g/mile for the period 2022–26 and further to 85g/mile for 2027–32, creating a strong incentive for more EVs on the roads of America. With Trump, a status quo of 161g/miles or more is expected, they said. This leads to the conclusion that the planned high level of vehicle electrification cannot be reached in the US.
The number of EVs sold will increase under either president, but considerably slower during a Trump presidency. The difference would be 1.5 million vehicles annually, the webinar heard. In 2040 EV battery sales would be reduced by 47% after a Trump victory.
A Trump-controlled Congress would make changes to both IRA and BIL, but Wishnia said there are hundreds of millions of non-governmental dollars to fund investments in EV technology. Trump will also support domestic mining of battery raw materials, the audience heard.
All experts said both Chinese and US companies will establish plants in Mexico to supply the US and Latin America markets with cheaper EVs and batteries, which is on the radar of the US government. The support offered by BIL is still attractive to keep production within US borders.
