Menahem Anderman’s snapshop take of what’s happening in the electric and hybrid vehicle world confirmed what many were thinking: that full hybrid activity has slowed with the surprise fall in gasoline costs, but activity is now strongest is stop start with it now being fully mainstream and accounting for 60% of the European market.
As the self styled guru of EV and ancillary products slowly bows out of the conference he created, (AABC) sixteen years ago, his remarks about how the auto industry is playing the market was telling:
“Complying with government regulations at the lowest possible cost per environmental benefit is the ultimate short-term driver for automakers,” he said .
In other words, it’s about compliance. Nothing more nothing less. For governents, it’s all about pushing CO2 emissions lower, while for consumers, it’s about a few perks and maybe owning a new tech toy.
Anderman’s regional market survey was was further telling and depressing. In the US,hybrid sales fell 3% in 2015 because of falling fuel costs and only more demanding fuel economy regulations ( CAFE ) are likely to drive them in the opposite direction. EV sales are still low and predominant driven by California’s EV mandates. The used vehicle market is not a good bet either. Used EVs lose 50% on their values in three years, according to the Wall street journal.
Anderman’s take on Europe was mixed. A tougher legislative environment with lower standards of emissions forecast creates a good sales environment but he said threw were now too many small EV players for the customer.
The bright light was PHEV. German automakers have plans to introduce a version on nearly of their models. The electric range tied in with what the Chinese are demanding — 50km. Sales may come if Europe’s love affair with diesel ends following the VW emissions scandal.
And the bright light source may well be China. Despite all the talk of slowdown, HEV sales rose substantially in 2015 in China and Anderman’s forecasts suggest perhaps 400,000 vehicles sold in 2020. But whose car and more importantly, whose batteries?
You can see a full report on the event in the Spring issue of BEST (subscribe here)and read the Publisher’s take (free) here.
