Advanced lead battery technologies will see a rise in demand during the next five years despite the chemistry losing some of its market share to lithium-ion, according to a forecast made during Battery Council International (BCI) virtual conference.
Ray Kubis, chairman of Gridtential Energy, said the makers of the most advanced lead batteries could find market opportunities in the hundreds of millions or more across the transportation industry— including EFB, AGM and bi-polar batteries.
Kubis made the prediction during his five-year forecast for batteries in transportation applications during the BCI event on 27 April, where he reported the replacement battery market for light vehicles (SLI, stop-start and auxiliary) is expected to grow by 40 million units to a total of 552 million units in the next five years.
In the SLI category, the market share of lead batteries for that application is expected to grow at a CGAR of 3%, to more than $6 billion up to 2024.
The use of bi-polar lead batteries in 48V applications is also forecast to grow at around $1.5 billion in the same time frame.
Kubis said: “The total market for transportation lead based batteries is forecast to grow 3% annually, benefitting from the improved mix of AGM and EFB stop/start batteries across the large replacement market, plus the integration of bi-polar batteries in the fast growing 48 volt system platforms.
“These two factors offset the share reduction and shift to lithium batteries in eBikes, plus some LSEV and SLI applications.”
However, registrants to the inaugural event, called because COVID-19 had forced BCI to cancel the Nevada conference, heard that in North America, the lack of a “sustained extreme cold” winter had seen a 20% drop in point of sale battery sales in January, with February and March showing a similar trend. This led to inventory adjustments and reduced production in Spring, said Kubis.
Total battery demand is forecast to grow from $76 billion (835GWh) last year to $178 billion (1,369GWh) by 2024 for all transportation applications. Of the 2024 total, lithium is expected to contribute 122GWh (a 92GWh rise) and lead 14GWh (1GWh growth).
Kubis told BEST the detailed model was established pre-COVID, with a late April adjustment to reduce the five-year out demand by 5% for both electrified and non-electrified applications. “This could prove high or low of course, yet it does not really change the story of more than doubling the market in five years to nearly $180 billion,” he said.
Up to 2024, lead battery’s share in the eBike sector is forecast to fall by $400million as lithium-ion takes a quarter of the OE market.
It’s a similar story in the low-speed electric vehicle and golf cart markets which will fall $300 million as the use of lithium-ion batteries grows among original equipment manufacturers.
